In terms of underlying fundamentals, we think the retail brokerage has over-extended itself with spending, share based compensation, and various other non-essential expenses. This compares to consensus estimates of $1.37 billion FY'22 revenue, and a diluted loss of -$1.12 per share.

We estimate that Robinhood will report full-year revenue and diluted EPS results of $1.38 billion FY '22 and -$1.16 loss per share. But, the quality of the business is subjectively worse in some regards when compared to Coinbase, as it has less exposure to a crypto-themed recovery and the on-going fraud investigation of Sam Bankman-Fried has managed to pollute the green retail broker. We think the company can address some product specific issues, which could bring back users, we're also assuming HOOD can turn profitable on a near-term basis a bit sooner than Coinbase. Given HOOD's added exposure to equities and the launch of various crypto-specific services, we think the business has improved its positioning in the marketplace, but was unable to drive a compelling enough argument to drive adoption of the stock trading platform as 12.2 million Q3 '22 MAU metrics are weak versus prior-year's 21.3 million Q3 '21 MAUs. We also acknowledge that growth metrics are a bit more compelling when compared to Coinbase ( COIN ) on a near-term basis as Robinhood reported -1% y/y sales growth in Q3 '22 versus Coinbase -55% sales growth in the prior quarter.

Though the company has yet to announce an earnings date, we think a combination of bad press, and tough earnings results will keep the stock price suppressed. Robinhood ( NASDAQ: HOOD) has a difficult set-up heading into its Q4 earnings call in which the company is expected to report earnings February 8th, 2022.

Robinhood stock profit calculator